Can I Retire Early?
What if I worked longer?
How much can I spend in retirement?
These are frequently asked questions and the answers depend on many factors. Historical data is used to simulate your retirement plan and calculate the probability of success. Federal taxes including FICA and Medicare taxes are automatically applied to income. Long Term Capital Gains are applied to taxable realized gains. Upcoming features include state and local taxes, assets, and debt.
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Retirement Information

Basic Information

Basic Plan Calculation
The Basic Plan Calculation predicts future account values assuming consistent contributions, inflation, and returns. While it is unrealistic to assume consistent returns, the results can serve as a starting point.
Historical Plan Success Probability : Am I Ready To Retire?
A historical back test will plug your data into a model that contains the stock market returns, bond returns, and inflation rates for the past 100 years and simulate your results if you had retired on that year. The probability of success is defined as the percentage of historical scenarios that resulted in a successful retirement. A successful retirement is defined as a portfolio value greater than 0 at the end of the retirement period. For example, a score of 75% would mean that in 25% of the scenarios, the accounts would be completely depleted before life expectency is reached.
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Historical Plan Calculation
The Historical Plan Calculation runs a historical back test using real data to simulate likely future scenarios. This chart displays the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile values for each year of retirement until life expectancy is reached.
Probability of Success by Expenses (Excluding Mortgage Payment) : How much can I spend in retirement?
Using variable annual expenses, a full historical back test is run to determine the probability of success. Demonstrates the impact of annual expenses on the probability of success.
Probability of Success by Retirement Age : What if I work longer?
Using variable ages of retirement a full historical back test is run to determine the probability of success. Demonstrates the impact of delaying retirement on the probability of success.
How The Calculations Are Done
Basic Plan
Uses historical averages for stock market returns (10% annually), bond returns (4% annually), and inflation (3.1%). Federal taxes including FICA and Medicare are assumed to remain constant at today's rates. Any surplus is deposited in the Taxed Investment Accounts. Withdrawals are first taken from Taxed Investment Accounts and then PreTax Accounts.
Historical Plan Success Probability
Begins with the market conditions in 1928 and simulates your retirement for the duration of your retirement based on the Life Expectancy. If there is any money left it is considered a success. The same process is repeated for every year. The result that is displayed is the ratio of (successful scenarios)/(total years since 1928).
Probability Of Success By Expenses
Increases the Annual Expenses by $5000 calculates the Historical Probability Of Success. If the Probability is under 100% and above 50% it is displayed in the chart.
Probability Of Success By Retirement Age
Starts at the user's current age and calculates the Historical Plan Probability Of Success and continually increases the Retirement Age by 1 year. The loop will stop once 100% Probability is reached or 15 years.